‘Back of the napkin' expansion plans
I was at a backyard bbq this past weekend just south of Saskatoon. It was v. fancy - lots of fancy people with fancy outfits and fancy problems.
We brought an over-priced bottle of rosé and I hummed and hawed over my outfit for a good 2 - 3hrs. Classic haha.
Anyway, the event was a lot of fun. Both Anthony and I had some great conversations, and I left feeling energized (a rare win for this introvert!!).
But one convo really stuck with me from the event.
I was chatting with a business owner in the health and wellness space who just opened a second location in a neighbouring province.
He’s in it for a little under $1M… and it isn’t going well.
Clients aren’t coming.
Staffing’s a disaster.
And, to top it all off, Health Canada flagged him for a compliance issue last month.
So, I asked what I thought was a pretty innocent question:
“How does all this stack up against your cash flow projections for this clinic?”
He laughed.
And said:
“We didn’t do a projection. If we did, we probably wouldn’t have moved forward with the second clinic.”
😬
I tried to hide my shock / surprise / judgement at this statement, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized… yeah, he’s probably right.
The numbers wouldn’t have supported the expansion - they probably would’ve said “the timing’s off because market demand isn’t there” or “let’s reconsider why expansion has to mean operating in a whole other province when the regulatory / compliance costs are really, really high” etc etc…
But this guy's ‘back of the napkin’, ‘fly by the seat of my pants’ attitude worked for clinic 1 so that’s 10000% why he’s doing it for clinic 2.
I get it.
But here’s the problem.
When you open a second location (or try to expand) without even a rough cash flow projection…
You could accidentally drain the profits of the first clinic to fund the second.
If you have no idea how much free cash flow your first location generates, the new one can become a money pit real fast.
And instead of one clinic running really well, you’ve now got two clinics under pressure - and you’re up at 2am not sure how you’ll make payroll.
You’ll have no idea when (or if) the second location will break even.
I know, I know - I can hear you now - “No projection can tell me exactly when this will happen, Tanya”. Sure. But without some kind of projection, you are flying blind, my friend.
There are no benchmarks to tell you if the new space is on track so it becomes impossible to make decisions - staffing, marketing, even operating hours - because you’re not sure what “good” even looks like.
You might hire too soon or too late.
Cash flow planning helps you figure out when to bring on another physician, RN, or support staff.
Without it, you risk hiring reactively which either means not getting the right ROI on payroll or burning out your existing team.
Here’s the hard truth:
A cash flow projection might have made this guy pause.
But it also would’ve helped him plan better.
And perhaps most importantly - recover his initial investment faster.
Because I don’t know about you, but I got into business to impact my community and make money.
Making investment decisions and “hoping it works out” or guessing at expansion plans that quietly cannibalize existing profitable parts of your business isn’t good enough if you (or I) want to grow and keep an eye on our bottom lines.
Because I’ll be honest, friend: growth for growth sake is meaningless and it's kinda a dumb, finance-bro thing to pursue.
You want profit.
You want long term financial stability.
You want a business that pays you, not just your team.
In my management consulting practice, we work with founders, clinic owners, business partners, and entrepreneurs who are navigating growth, expansion, or just trying to make sense of their cash flow.
A day in our life looks like:
Building custom cash flow projections
Stress-testing expansion plans
Helping clients figure out if (and when) a second location actually makes sense
Creating clear financial roadmaps so decisions aren’t made on gut feel alone
These are the kinds of problems we solve:
You’re growing, but not sure if the business can actually afford it (and who is keeping their eye on profitability??)
You’re making money, but cash is tight and you don’t know why
You want to expand, but don’t have a plan for how / when you’ll earn that investment back
If any of that sounds like you, I’d love to help you grow - strategically, profitably, and without losing sleep at 2am wondering how long it will be until that second location is in the black.
Book a no-judgment call if you're ready to talk about it. I'm here, friend.